Calculating with that changing numerator screwed me over before I even started. I haven't done any math since highschool, even if the numbers aren't 100% correct I feel like this puts the numbers given by Jagex more into perspective. Or alternatively, if going for a specific item would be 1/100 for most of the items, 1/200 for golden thread/elemental impetus, 1/300 for a specific pair of glasses.ĭyes per clue: 1/100 to roll on any dye table Shadow dye chance (1/28)-> 1/2800 Ice dye chance (1/19)-> 1/1900 (Since shadow dye wasn't rolled this would actually be (27/28*1900) making it closer to 1830, but since the 1/100 is already rounded down we may as well clumse forward and go for a proper improper average) Barrows dye chance (1/14)-> 1/1400 (like the ice dye this would be closer to 1/1278 due to two already failed rolls) 3rd age dye chance (1/85)-> 1/8500 Blood dye chance (1/90)->1/9000Īverage dye chance per clue: (1/2800) + (1/1900) + (1/1400) + (1/8500) + (1/9000) ≈ 16.35/9000 or 1/550 (1/410 if including rerolls) Rough dye distribution: Shadow 20%, Ice 29%, Barrows 39%, Third age 6.5%, Blood 6%. Which with 36 rolls on the regular rares would mean a 36/100 or ~1/3 chance to get a regular rare per drop. Some rough guestimating on per clue chances: The 1/596 chance to land on a rare is higher than 5/596, let's say close to 1/100. Theyre quick and easy to do, but jeeze, better off doing hards. ![]() As far as I can tell these rates are based on rolling on the rare table for just 1 out of 5 slots (not sure what the dedicated 6th slot is, but I assume it then cannot land on the rare table?), which if it fails rolls on to the next slot which has an increased chances (+25 to numerator) to land on the rare table (or not if a rare was rolled). Ive been running clues the last few days (not massively), but up to about 300 masters obtained from hards and Ive got one soul ammy kit of note. Nice, though it doesn't really say much about the actual rarity per clue until someone does the maths.
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